Finding mistakes

Today, after 2 bad seassions, I was reviewing what I am doing wrong. Like I said in previous post, I want to concern in just 1 concept at a time. I opened PokerTracker and while looking at stats, I am trying to figure out what is wrong. My attempt to steal was pretty high. It was somthing about 46%, so I decided, that I want to spend some time with this concept. I found awesome article on www.flopturnriver.com about blind stealing. In this article is everything about blindstealing even with math. So I grabed pen, paper and started to first calculate how and why is blind stealing actually profitably strategy.

So, first we need to figure out, how much our blinds are folding to raise. I make my own stats, so in this case, small blind (SB) have 15% VPIP and big blind (BB) have 25% VPIP.

Now we know, that SB will fold 85% and BB 75%.
Together it makes: 0.85 x 0.75 = 0.63 = 63%

In 63% we get 1,5 BB. In 37% we lost 3 BB (if our stealing raise is 3 BB).

That makes:
0.63 x 1,5 - 0,37 x 3 = -0,165

So we are in deficit -0,165 BB. But, if blinds are called us, we can still win flop. 1/3 time they will miss flop and we can c-bet it and grab the pot.

So if we win flop just 30% of the time:
(0.63 x 1,5) - (0.37 x 3 x 0,7) + (0.3 x 0.37 x 3.5) = 0,5635

0,7 and 0,3 here mean % of chance so 70% we lost flop and 30% we win
3.5 mean pot, if we get to flop, so 1,5 BB + 2BB call to our raise (3BB)

I recommend to everyone, calculate it himself and figure out why is stealing the blinds profitable. But that is not the whole point of stealing. You also will have position and if you will wide your range from CO, BTN you also will get new image, that you don´t play just nuts.

But, my problem was somewhere else. My attempt to steal was fairly high. But with some more reading and basic thinking, I figure out, that I often stealing blinds from bad players, that had high VPIP, even with wide range. That always ended with call and lost for me.

So, now I am watching who is behind me as a blind and it will dictate me my range. If player have high VPIP, I need stealing with hands, those I can play easy on flop such as suited conectors, overcards or even 1gap hands or so... but the other way, if player is real tight, his VPIP is something like 8-10, I can open my range and attack him every time I can.

The next mistake I was making, that I was trying to steal limped pot also with wide range. That was mistake because more people in the pot the tighter you need your range. There is right to squeeze with good hand, but thats another concept, I dont want to concern yet.

That was my chapter about blind stealing. After this study, I am playing a lot better from button, cutoff and I am understand why is blind stealing so important. Here is graph from last seassion, where I was practicing everything I learned about blind stealing:

Blind steal training, January

Thanks for reading !